Comprehensive

            Development Plan Update

                          2005 to 2025

 

 

 

 


 

                                                              Prepared For

                   Washington County

                            Nebraska

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Prepared By


 

Washington County, Nebraska

 

Comprehensive Development Plan 2005 Project Participants

 

Board of Supervisors

Harlo Wilcox, Chair

Kent Wilcox, Vice Chair

Ernest Abariotes

Jeff Quist

Daryl Miller

Kent Mortensen

Wesley Petznick

 

County Personnel

Charlotte Petersen:                  Clerk

Steve Mencke:                                   Assessor

Ed Talbot:                                            Attorney

Alan Doll:                                          Highway and Weed Supt.

Kay Erwin:                                           Treasurer

Richard Hansen                            Surveyor

Mike Robinson:                                 Sheriff

 

Planning Commission                               Board of Adjustment

Laura Linhart:                 Chair                                                     Dave o’Hanlon,                Chair

Dave O’Hanlon:               Vice Chairman                               Gene Ohrt                              Vice Chair

Richard Schlenker                                                                          Irwin Nelson                                    

Doug Dierks                                                                                            Dan Kozol

Dave O’Hanlon                                                                                    Shauna Gerke

Matt Mathiesen                                                                                  Alternate Open

Kay Voss

Marvin Rowher

 

Doug Cook:                                         County Planner

 

Planning Consultant


 

                                                                            Table of Contents 

Introduction

 

   Introduction 

     Location

     Topography and Climate

     History of Washington County

The Purpose of Comprehensive Planning

The Comprehensive Planning Process

Comprehensive Plan Components

Governmental and Jurisdictional Organization

 

County Assessment

 

Conditions and Trend Analysis

 

  Demographic Profile

     Population Trends and Analysis

     Migration Analysis

     Age Structure Analysis

     Population Projections

  Housing Profile

     Age of Existing Housing Stock

  Economic and Employment Profile

     Income Statistics

     Income Source and Public Assistance

     Industry Employment

     Commuter Trends

     Regional Basic/Non-Basic Analysis

     Agricultural Profile

  County Facilities

     Facilities Plan

  Recreational Facilities

     Federal Recreational Facilities

     State Recreational Facilities

     Local Recreational Facilities

     Other Recreational Activities

  Educational Facilities

     Public Schools

     Other Public School Entities in Washington County

     Post-Secondary Education

     Other Educational Opportunities within Washington County

  Fire and Police Protection

     Fire and Rescue

  Law Enforcement

  County Buildings

     County Historical Sites and Buildings

  Transportation Facilities

     Railroad Service

     Bus Service

     Airports

  Communication Facilities

     Telephone Services

     Radio and Television Stations

     Internet/World Wide Web Service Providers (ISP)

     Newspapers

  Public Utilities

     Electricity

     Natural Gas

     Water Supply

     Sanitary Sewerage Systems

     Solid Waste Disposal Facilities

  Health Facilities

     Hospitals

     Medical Clinics

     Nursing Home Facilities

     Home Health Care Services

 

Goals & Policies

 

  Goals and Policies

     Introduction

     Washington County Town Hall Meetings

     Town Hall Meetings

     Overall Town Hall Meetings, Washington County

     Goals and Policies for Washington County

     Education

     Environment

     Water Resources

     Economic Development

     Public Facilities and Taxes

     Public Works

     Transportation

     Health and Safety

     Parks and Recreation

     Implementation, Evaluation, and Review

 

Environment, Natural And Man-made Resources

 

  Introduction

  Natural Environmental Conditions

  Natural Conditions

     Climate

     Topography

     Relief

     Slope

     Wildlife and Recreation

     Plant and animal life

     Wetlands

  Soil Formation and Classification

     Soil Parent Material

     Native Vegetation

     Soil Association

  Capability Groups of Soils

     Soil Capability System, Washington County, Nebraska

     Factors of Soil Formation

     Prime Farmland

     Flooding Frequency

     Soil Limitations

 

Development Chapter

 

  Introduction

  Land Use Elements

     Principles and Concepts of the Washington Development Chapter

  Existing Land Use

     Introduction

     Land Use Categories

     Existing Land Use Analysis

     Existing Residential Density

     Existing Land Use Summary

  Existing Transportation System

     Street and Road Classification System

     Composition of Existing Transportation System

  Future Land Use

     Agricultural Uses

     Non-Farm Residential Development

     Commercial and Industrial Uses

     Recreational Development

  The Future Land Use Plan

     Agricultural Use Areas

     Residential Use Areas

     Other Land Use Districts

  Land Use Summary

  Land Use Summary

  Transportation System Plan

     Introduction

     Transportation Planning and Land Use

     Transportation Financing Issues

     Washington County’s One and Six Year Plan (Some Information Add later)

     Nebraska Department of Roads’ Improvements

     Washington County’s Proposed Improvements

 

Plan Implementation

 

  Achieving Washington County’s Future

     Action agenda

     Plan Financing

  Comprehensive Plan Maintenance

     Annual Review of the Plan

     Plan Amendment Procedures

  Unanticipated Opportunities

  Methods for Evaluating Development Proposals

 


 

                                                                          Table of Figures

Figure 1: Population Trends and Projections, Washington County, 1900 to 2020

Figure 2: Age of Existing Housing Stock, Washington County, 1990


 

 

 

                                                                           Table of Tables

Table 1: Population Trends, Washington County & Communities, 1980 to 2003

Table 2: Population Trends, Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area, 1980 -2003

Table 4: Age-Sex Characteristics, Washington County, 1990 to 2000

Table 5: Population Projection Series, Washington County and Communities, 2000 to 2030

Table 32: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun

Table 33: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun

Table 34: Issues of Washington County, Fort Calhoun

Table 35: Future Projects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun

Table 36: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Blair

Table 37: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Blair

Table 38: Issues of Washington County, Blair

Table 39: Future Projects of Washington County, Blair

Table 40: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School

Table 41: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School

Table 42: Issues of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School

Table 43: Future Projects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School

Table 44: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Herman

Table 45: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Herman

Table 46: Issues of Washington County, Herman

Table 47: Future Projects of Washington County, Herman

Table 48: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Arlington

Table 49: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Arlington

Table 50: Issues of Washington County, Arlington

Table 51: Future Projects of Washington County, Arlington

Table 52: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Overall

Table 53: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Overall

Table 54: Issues of Washington County, Overall

Table 55: Future Projects of Washington County, Overall

 

 


 

 

                                                                        Introduction


 

Introduction

 

Location

Washington County is located along the Missouri River on the Nebraska/Nebraska border.  Washington County is bounded

on the south by Douglas County, on the west by Dodge County, on the north by Burt County and on the east by the Missouri

River. Across the Missouri River in Nebraska, both Harrison County and Pottawattamie County bound Washington County.

 

Several highways traverse Washington County. U.S. Highway 30 enters Washington County from the west and east and State

Highway 91 enters from the west. State Highways 31 and 133 enter Washington County from the south and U.S Highway 75

enters from the North and South. All U.S. and state highways converge on Blair, in the east central part of the county with

U.S. Highway 30 continuing into Nebraska.

 

Topography and Climate

Washington County contains approximately 400 square miles, or 256,000 acres. The surface of the County is quite

diversified.  Approximately sixty percent of the County is upland, or rolling prairie.  Creek and river bottoms, and valleys

comprise about thirty percent of the landscape; while ten-percent of the County is broken and bluffy. The bottoms of the

Missouri River, along the eastern edge of the County, are from three to seven miles wide, and those of the Elkhorn, on the

southwestern border, are from three to six.  Many smaller streams cover the County.  The Papillion River and its tributaries

drain a large portion of the County.

 

Washington County is located approximately 1,100 feet above sea level.  The annual average temperature is 50.8L F.  During

the winter months, the average temperature is 28.0L F, but can dip below zero.  During the summer months, the average

temperature is 72.8L F; however, there will likely be a few days when the temperature surpasses 100L F.  Not only is the

temperature capable of very large annual changes, it can also change very quickly if conditions are right.  Average annual

moisture is 56.0 inches.  Average rainfall is 3.4 inches in spring and summer and 1.2 inches in fall and winter.  Average

snowfall is 2.7 inches in early winter, and 6.6 inches in late winter.  The annual growing season is 170 days.

 

History of Washington County

Washington County has a rich and important history.  Its history began in 1804, when Meriwether Lewis and William Clark

held a council with six Indian chiefs from the Missouri and Otoe tribes.  This council, held at present day Fort Calhoun,

established friendly relations between the expedition of Lewis and Clark and the Indian tribes represented there.

 

In 1819, the Federal Government established Fort Atkinson, afterward called Fort Calhoun, on the same ground where the

Lewis and Clark council had taken place.  Fort Atkinson was the first American fort west of the Missouri River, and

eventually included Nebraska’s first school, farm, sawmill, hospital, and library.  At its peak, Fort Atkinson was the largest

military installation in America.  However, by 1827, the frontier had moved further west, and Fort Atkinson was closed.

In 1846, Brigham Young and the Mormons established a winter camp in Florence, just south of Washington County, and

several of the party continued north, to an area just south of present day Blair, to set up a farm for food supplies.  After

conflicts with Indian tribes in the area, Brigham Young and the Mormons closed their encampment.

 

In 1854, Thomas B. Cuming, acting Governor of the Nebraska Territory, issued a proclamation that set the original

boundaries of Washington County.  The first Legislature of Nebraska convened in January of 1856, and in February,

reorganized the boundaries of Washington County.  The same act that reorganized the boundaries set Fort Calhoun as the

county seat. Where it remained until 1858 when it was moved to Desoto; in 1866 it was again located at Fort Calhoun by a

popular vote and in 1869, by a public vote moved to Blair.

 

The Carter brothers were the original settlers of present-day Blair in May 1855. In 1864 the Northern Nebraska Air-Line

Railroad Company was organized and in 1867 received a grant of seventy-five section of land, which was transferred to the

Sioux City & Pacific Railroad Company composed of five gentlemen. In 1868 John I. Blair and associates became owners of

the franchises of the road. In June the people of Washington County, at a special election, voted to the S.C. & P Company

$75,000 in county bonds and the company which had been awaiting the result of the election, immediately under the

management of John I. Blair, pushed the road across the Missouri and built it centrally throughout the County from east to

west to Fremont, to the exact location of the prospective railroad company from the Carter brothers and three other men and

the offering to this land for sate in lots at public auction. The sale was conducted ostensibly by the Railroad Company, but

really, John I. Blair purchased the whole tract from the original settlers’ it was he who sold the lots and it was he in whose

hone the town was named.

 

Washington County was named in honor of President George Washington, United States President from 1789 to 1797. 

According to Perkey’s Nebraska Place Names, (Perkey, Elton A., Nebraska State Historical Society, 1995), there were as

many as 50 different settlements in Washington County at various times.  Many were merely railroad stations, and several

were destroyed by floods.  Washington County is now home to six communities; Arlington, Blair, Fort Calhoun, Herman,

Kennard, and Washington.


 

The Purpose of Comprehensive Planning

 

The Washington County Comprehensive Development Plan is designed to promote orderly growth and development for the

County and its communities.  The Comprehensive Development Plan will provide policy guidelines to enable citizens and

elected officials to make informed decisions about the future of the County.

                                                                              The Plan acts as a tool to “Develop

                                                                          a road map that guides the community

                                                                                             through change”

The Comprehensive Development Plan will provide a guideline for the location of future developments within the planning

jurisdiction of Washington County.  The Comprehensive Development Plan is intended to encourage a strong economic base

for the County so the goals of the County are achieved.

 

The Plan will assist Washington County in evaluating the impacts of development (i.e. economic, social, fiscal, service and

amenity provision, health, safety and general welfare) and encourage appropriate land uses throughout the jurisdictional area

of the County.  The objective of planning is to provide a framework for guiding the community—whether a village, city,

county, toward orderly growth and development.  The Plan assists the County in balancing the physical, social, economic,

and aesthetic features as it responds to private sector interests.

 

Planned growth will make Washington County more effective in serving residents, more efficient in using resources, and able

to meet the standard of living and quality of life every individual desires.

 

The Comprehensive Planning Process

 

Comprehensive planning begins with the data collection phase.  Data are collected that provide a snapshot of the past and

present County conditions.  Analysis of data provides the basis for developing forecasts for future land-use demands in the

County.

 

The second phase of the planning process is the development of general goals and policies, based upon the issues facing the

County.  These are practical guidelines for improving existing conditions and guiding future growth.  The Comprehensive

Development Plan is a vision presented in text, graphics and tables that represent the desires of the County for the future.

 

The Comprehensive Development Plan represents a blueprint designed to identify, assess, and develop actions and policies in

the areas of population, land use, transportation, housing, economic development, community facilities, and utilities.  The Comprehensive Development Plan contains recommendations that when implemented will be of value to the County and its

residents.

 

Implementation is the final phase of the process.  A broad range of development policies and programs are required to

implement the Comprehensive Development Plan.  The Comprehensive Development Plan identifies the tools, programs, and

methods necessary to carry out the recommendations.  Nevertheless, the implementation of the development policies

contained within the Comprehensive Development Plan is dependent upon the adoption of the Plan by the governing body,

and the leadership exercised by the present and future elected and appointed officials of the County.

 

The Plan was prepared under the direction of the Washington County Planning Commission with the assistance and

participation of the Washington County Board of Supervisors, the Plan Review Committee and citizens of Washington

County.  The planning time period for achieving goals, programs, and developments identified in the Washington County Comprehensive Development Plan is 20 years.  However, the County should review the Plan annually and update the

document every ten to fifteen years, or when a pressing need is identified.  Updating the Comprehensive Development Plan

will allow the County to incorporate ideas and developments that were not known at the time of the present comprehensive

planning process.

 

Comprehensive Plan Components

 

Nebraska State Statutes require the inclusion of certain elements in a Comprehensive Plan.  A “Comprehensive Development

Plan,” as defined in Neb. Rev. Stat. § 23-114.02 (Reissue 1997), “shall consist of both graphic and textual material and shall

be designed to accommodate anticipated long-range future growth.”  The Comprehensive Plan is comprised of the following

components:

§              Community Characteristics Profile,

§              Community Facilities Profile,

§              Community Goals and Policies,

§              Land Use Analysis,

§              Transportation Analysis, and

§              Plan Implementation.

 

Analyzing past and existing demographic, housing, economic and social trends permit the projection of likely conditions in

the future.  Projections and forecasts are useful tools in planning for the future; however, these tools are not always accurate

and may change due to unforeseen factors.  Also, past trends may be skewed or the data may be inaccurate, creating a

distorted picture of past conditions.  Therefore, it is important for Washington County to closely monitor population, housing

and economic conditions that may impact the County.  Through periodic monitoring, the County can adapt and adjust to

changes at the local level.  Having the ability to adapt to socio-economic change allows the County to maintain an effective Comprehensive Development Plan for the future, to enhance the quality of life, and to raise the standard of living for all

residents.

 

The Comprehensive Development Plan records where Washington County has been, where it is now, and where it likely will

be in the future.  Having this record in the Comprehensive Development Plan will serve to inform County officials as much

as possible.  The Comprehensive Development Plan is an information and management tool for County leaders to use in their

decision-making process when considering future developments.  The Comprehensive Development Plan is not a static

document; it should evolve as changes in the land-use, population or local economy occur during the planning period.  This

information is the basis for Washington County’s evolution as it achieves its physical, social, and economic goals.

 

Governmental and Jurisdictional Organization

 

The Washington County Board of Supervisors, which is a board of elected officials, performs the governmental functions for

the County.  Each incorporated community in Washington County also has elected officials and officers that oversee how

their community is governed.

 

The planning and zoning jurisdiction of Washington County, pursuant to Neb. Rev. Stat. § 23-114 (Reissue 1997), includes

all of the unincorporated portions of the County, excluding the established extraterritorial jurisdiction of each incorporated

city or village.

 

Pursuant to Neb. Rev. Stat. § 17-1002 (Reissue 1997), the planning and zoning jurisdiction for the incorporated communities

in Washington County that have adopted Comprehensive Planning and Zoning Ordinances, except for Blair, includes the area

within one mile of their corporate limits.  The City of Blair has the authority to exercise planning and zoning jurisdiction

throughout a two-mile extraterritorial jurisdiction.  As these communities grow and annex land into their corporate limits,

their extraterritorial jurisdictions will extend further into the County.  There are five (5) communities in Washington County,

besides Blair, that are incorporated, including Arlington, Fort Calhoun, Herman, Kennard, and Washington.


 

                                                                                                     County Assessment:

                                                                                 Conditions and Trend Analysis


 

Demographic Profile

 

Population statistics aid decision-makers by developing a broad picture of Washington County.  It is important for

Washington County to understand where it has been and where it appears to be going.  Population is the driving force behind

housing, local employment, economic, and fiscal stability of the County.  Historic population conditions assist in developing demographic projections, which in turn assist in determining future housing, retail, medical, employment and educational

needs within the County.  Projections provide an estimate for the County a basis from which to base future land-use and

development decisions.  However, population projections are only estimates and unforeseen factors may effect projections

significantly.

 

Population Trends and Analysis

Table 1 indicates the population for the incorporated communities in Washington County, the unincorporated areas, and

Washington County as a whole, between 1980 and 2003.  This information provides the residents of Washington County with

a better understanding of their past and present population trends and changes. Washington County’s population in 2000 was

18,780 persons, which was an increase of 3,272 persons, or 21.1%, from 1990.  The County’s population in 2003 was

estimated to be 19,690, an increase of 910 persons, 4.8%, over 2000.

 

The table indicates that Washington County had a net increase of 6,380 persons or 47.9% between 1980 and 2003.  This was

driven primarily by an increase in the populations of Washington County’s unincorporated areas.  The greatest population

increases, with regard to percentages, for the incorporated areas, occurred in Fort Calhoun and Blair.  Herman is the only

community to have suffered an overall loss between 1980 and 2003, which happened in large part between 1980 and 1990.

 

Washington County exhibited its greatest population gain, both in terms of total number of persons and in percentage, within

Table 1, between 1990 and 2000, when it recorded an increase of 3,272 persons, or 21.1%.  During this period, the

unincorporated areas of Washington County experienced a population gain of 2,338 persons, or 38.5%, and the incorporated

areas increased by 934 persons, or 9.9%. 

 

Since 2000, estimates for Washington County show the population has continued to increase in all areas of the county.  The

communities of Fort Calhoun and Washington exhibited the largest percentage increases, growing by 5.8% and 7.1%

respectively.  The largest increase in total numbers occurred in the City of Blair, which has grown by 266 persons, or 3.8%.

 

Table 2 indicates the population for the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), of which Washington

County is a part.  This MSA includes the Nebraska Counties of Douglas, Sarpy, Washington, Saunders (added in 2000) and

Cass County (added in 1998).  The MSA also includes Pottawattamie County, Iowa.  Since Washington County is part of a

larger economic region, it is important for the County to have an understanding of the role they play within that area.  The

information shown in Table 2 allows Washington County to compare its growth to the growth of the surrounding area

 

Table 1: Population Trends, Washington County & Communities, 1980 to 2003

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1980 - 1990, 2000, 2003

 

Washington County is the least populated county within the MSA.  Washington County’s growth rate between 1980 and

2003 was 27.0%, compared to the MSA’s growth rate of 30.3%.  In 1980, Washington County accounted for 2.65% of the

population of the MSA.  By 2000, Washington County had decreased its percentage to 2.55%.  The population growth rate in

Washington County has been much greater than any other county in the MSA except for Sarpy County. 

 

Table 2: Population Trends, Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area, 1980 -2003

*Cass County, Nebraska, was added to the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area in 1998

** Saunders County was added to the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1980 - 1990, 2000, 2003

 

Migration Analysis

Migration Analysis allows a county to understand how specific dynamics are in influencing population change.  Migration

indicates the population size that has migrated in or out of the County.  The migration number is determined by subtracting

the natural change in population (i.e. births minus deaths) from the total change in population.  Table 3 shows the total

change in population for Washington County from 1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980‑1990, and 1990-1998.  A negative number

in the “Total Migration” column indicates the number of persons that have migrated out of the County, while a positive

number indicates the number of persons that have migrated into the County.  Unfortunately, this analysis is primarily

available for the County as a whole.  These data have limited availability for communities.

 

Migration Analysis is important for a County to understand since it offers an explanation of what affected the population

changes.  Through migration analysis, it can be determined how much of a population change was due to persons migrating

in or out of an area, and how much was due to births or deaths in the area.  For example, assume an area had a total change of

100 persons during any given time period, but there were 15 more births than deaths during that same time period.  Looking

at the natural change only, the area should have grown by 15 persons.  However, when the total change of 100 is taken into

account, we need to subtract out those births in order to determine what caused the remaining change.  If the total change of

100 was an increase, then 85 people moved into the area (100 increase – 15 births that occurred in area = 85 additional people

in area).  If, however, the total change of 100 represented a loss, then 115 people moved out of the area (100 decrease + 15

births in the area that did not increase the population = 115 people moved out of the area).

 

Table 3: Migration Analysis, Washington County, 1960 to 2000

Source(s): U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1960 - 1990, 1998

Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics Report(s), 1960 –1998

 

Table 3 indicates births exceeded deaths in Washington County for each reporting period. Based upon this information and

the migration analysis formula, the primary factor of Washington County’s increasing population can be determined for any

given period.  During the reporting periods of 1960 to 1970, and 1980 to 1990, the largest contributor to Washington

County’s population change was the number of births in the County.  There was an addition of 724 and 725 persons, due to

births, in these reporting periods, respectively.  Also, there was a total in-migration of 483 and 374 persons, respectively. 

During the 1970 to 1980 reporting period, total in-migration added 1,462 persons, while births exceeded deaths by 736,

therefore, in-migration accounted for twice as many additions to the County’s population as births.  During the final reporting

period, 1990 to 2000, in-migration added 1,664 persons, while the natural change accounted for the addition of 509 persons,

which shows that in-migration accounted for nearly three times more of the increase than births.

 

Age Structure Analysis

Age structure is an important component of population analysis.  By analyzing age structure, one can determine which age

groups (cohorts) within Washington County are being affected by population shifts and changes.  Each age cohort affects the

population in a number of different ways.  For example, the existence of larger young cohorts (20-44 years) means that there

is a greater ability to sustain future population growth than does larger older cohorts.  On the other hand, if the large, young

cohorts maintain their relative size, but do not increase the population as expected, they will, as a group, tend to strain the

resources of an area as they age.  Understanding what is happening within the age groups of the County’s population is

necessary to effectively plan for the future.

 

Table 4: Age-Sex Characteristics, Washington County, 1990 to 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, STF-1A, 1980, 1990

 

Table 4 exhibits the age cohort structure for Washington County in 1990 and 2000.  Examining population age structure may

indicate significant changes affecting the different population segments within the County.  Realizing how many persons are

in each age cohort, and at what rate the age cohorts are changing in size, will allow for informed decision-making in order to

maximize the future use of resources.  As shown in Table 4, changes between 1990 and 2000 occurred within a number of

different age group cohorts.

 

One method of analyzing cohort movement in a population involves comparing the number of persons aged between 0 and 4

years in 1990 with the number of persons in the same age cohort 10 years later, or aged between 10 and 14 years in 2000. 

For example, in Washington County, there were 1,063 children between the ages of 0 and 4 in 1990, and in 2000 there were

1,479 children between the ages of 10 and 14, an increase of 416 children.  A review of population by this method permits

one to undertake a detailed analysis of which cohorts are moving in and out of the County.  The positive change in this cohort

indicates in-migration.

 

Washington County experienced growth in many of its age cohorts.  The 0 to 4 and 5 to 9 cohorts always indicate an

increase, since the persons, in that group, were not born when the previous census was completed.  Increases in the cohorts

occurred in five age groups between 1990 and 2000, these cohort shifts were:

 

 

 

1990 Age Cohort                  Number                 2000 Age Cohort                  Number                 Change

NA                                          NA                          0-4 years                                1,207 persons        + 1,207 persons

NA                                          NA                          5-9 years                                1,423 persons        + 1,423 persons

0-4 years                                1,063 persons        10-14 years                             1,479 persons          + 416 persons

5-9 years                                1,329 persons        15-19 years                             1,581 persons          + 252 persons

20-24 years                               932 persons        30-34 years                             1,024 persons            + 92 persons

25-34 years                            2,338 persons        35-44 years                             3,057 persons          + 719 persons

35-44 years                            2,659 persons        45-54 years                             2,849 persons          + 190 persons

Total Change                                                                                                                                        + 4,299 persons

 

Five of the age-cohorts that existed in 1990 and 2000 declined in number.  Note that the cohorts represented in Table 4 differ

from those listed below due to the consolidation of the 25-29 and 30-34 cohorts from 1990 into a 35-44 cohort in 2000. 

While the County population increased during this ten year span, an analysis of where the changes took place will lead to an understanding of what services will be needed in the future. Outside of the 2000age groups of 0-4 and 5-9 years, the greatest

increases included the 35-44 and 10-14 year age groups. These specific age groups represent a solid in-migration of family

populations between 1990 and 2000.

 

Decreases in the cohorts occurred in a number of age groups between 1990 and 2000, these cohort shifts were:

1990 Age Cohort                  Number                 2000 Age Cohort                 Number                 Change

10-14 years                            1,400 persons        20-24 years                            1,139 persons        - 261 persons

15-19 years                            1,295 persons        25-29 years                               928 persons        - 367 persons

45-54 years                            1,818 persons        55-64 years                            1,670 persons        - 148 persons

55-64 years                            1,521 persons        65-74 years                               798 persons        - 723 persons

65 years +                              2,252 persons        75 years +                              1,162 persons     -1,090 persons

Total Change                                                                                                                                   - 2,589 persons

 

The three age cohorts, from 2000, representing the most negative change, are the 75 years and older, 65-74, and 20-24 age

cohorts.  The changes in the 75 years and older age cohort were most likely due to either deaths or people moving into elderly

care facilities located in other counties.  The changes in the 20-24 and 25-29 age cohorts in 2000 are most likely related to

persons completing high school or vocation training and moving onto either higher education opportunities or new careers

outside of the County.  The changes in the latter two are critical since they indicate that young people are moving away to

pursue higher education opportunities.  However, fewer of them are returning to Washington County when starting their

career and family.  However, the 2000 U. S. Census is indicating that a large number of families are moving to Washington

County once they pass the higher age group. Some of this may be due to increased employment opportunities in the County,

which can be attributed by the establishment of Cargill and Huntel.  

 

The median age in Washington County increased from 34.8 years in 1990 to 37.1 years in 2000.  The proportion of persons

less than 18 years of age decreased slightly in total population between 1990 and 2000, while those aged 65 years and older

increased by 7.7% overall.  There is a segment of the population that works in Omaha and has chosen to live in Washington

County and commute to Omaha.  The 10-14 year old age group of 2000 showed an increase of 144 persons, which leads to

the assumption that people with young families may be drawn to Washington County because of its quality of life and close

proximity to Omaha.  The change in people ages 55-74 has increased by 255 persons.

 

In order to accommodate a growing number of elderly, whom tend to remain in place as they age, Washington County, in

cooperation with the communities, should be involved in developing facilities that can house those that need assistance and

allow them to feel safe and comfortable.  To encourage the return of the younger and middle age groups, the County should

be involved in economic development activities, including housing options and the continued maintenance and improvement

of infrastructure to accommodate new growth, making Washington County an attractive place to live and work.  Having

Omaha commuters live in Washington County is fine for increasing the population base, but Washington County needs a

plan to also develop its economic base.  With a larger, secure economic base, Washington County would be better positioned

to plan for and meet its future service needs.

 

Population Projections

Population Projections are estimates based upon past and present circumstances.  Population projections allow Washington

County to estimate what the population will be in future years by looking at past trends.  By scrutinizing population changes

in this manner, the County will be able to develop a baseline of change from which they can create different future scenarios.

A number of factors (demographics, economics, social, etc.) may affect projections positively or negatively.  At the present

time, these projections are the best crystal ball Washington County has for predicting future population changes.  There are

many methods to project the future population trends; the six methods used below are intended to give Washington County a

broad overview of the possible population changes that could occur in the future.

 

Trend Line Analysis

Trend Line Analysis is a process of projecting future populations based upon changes during a specified period of time.  In the analysis of Washington County, three different trend lines were reviewed: 1960 to 2000, 1980 to 2000, and 1990 to 2000. A review of these trend lines indicates Washington County will continue to increase in population through 2030.  The following projections summarize the decennial population for Washington County through 2030.

 

Washington County Trend Analysis

Year                        Trend: 1960 to 2000             Trend: 1980 to 2000             Trend: 1990 to 2000

2010                        21,370 persons                      20,761 persons                      21,237 persons

2020                        24,318 persons                      22,951 persons                      24,016 persons

2030                        27,671 persons                      25,373 persons                      27,159 persons

 

Cohort Survival Analysis

Cohort Survival Analysis reviews the population by different age groups and sex.  The population age groups are then

projected forward by decade using survival rates for the different age cohorts.  This projection model accounts for average

birth rates by sex and adds the new births into the future population.

 

The Cohort Survival Model projection indicates Washington County’s population will increase each decade through 2030. 

The following projection for Washington County is based on applying survival rates to age cohorts, but does not consider the

effects of either in-migration or out-migration.

 

Washington County Cohort Survival Analysis

Year                       Cohort Survival Model

2010                        18,939 persons

2020                        20,162 persons

2030                        21,359 persons

 

Summary of Population Projections

Using the modeling techniques discussed in the previous paragraphs, a summary of the six population projections for

Washington County through the year 2030 is shown in Figure 1.  Three population projection scenarios were selected and

include (1) a Low Series; (2) a Medium Series; and, (3) a High Series.  All of the projections forecast an increase in County

population through the year 2030.  The following population projections indicate the different scenarios that may be

encountered by Washington County through the year 2030.

 

Year        Low Series = Cohort          Medium Series = 1980-2000               High Series = 1960-2000

2010        18,939 persons                      20,761 persons                                      21,370 persons     

2020        20,162 persons                      22,951 persons                                      24,318 persons

2030        21,359 persons                      25,373 persons                                      27,671 persons

 

Figure 1 reviews the population history of Washington County between 1900 and 2000, and identifies three population

projection scenarios into the years 2010, 2020, and 2030.  Figure 1 indicates the peak population for Washington County

occurred in 2000 with 18,780 people.  Beginning in 1900, Washington County began to experience a gradual decline in its

population.  However, starting in 1950, Washington County began to increase in population much more rapidly than it had

decreased over the previous fifty years.  From 1900 through 1950, Washington County lost a total of 1,575 people.  However,

between 1950 and 2000, Washington County gained 7,269 people, an average increase of 12.12 people every month over the

50 year period.  Between 1950 and 2000, Washington County's population increased by 63.0%, or 1.26% per year.

 
Figure 1: Population Trends and Projections, Washington County, 1900 to 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1900-2000, 2003

 


 

As stated previously, these projections are based upon data from past trends and present conditions. A number of external and

internal demographic, economic and social factors may affect these population forecasts. Washington County should monitor

population trends, size and composition periodically in order to understand in what direction their community is heading.

Washington County’s greatest population threat continues to be out-migration, and strategies should be developed to further

examine and prevent this phenomenon.

 

Table 5: Population Projection Series, Washington County and Communities, 2000 to 2030

Source: Population projections, JEO Consulting Group, 2000

 

Table 5 shows the population projection by series for each of the areas within Washington County.  The population

projections for the communities were found by determining the proportion of the total population that each community had

and calculating that percentage for each series.  This method of projection is helpful and gives an idea of where people are

likely to live.  This method does not consider the social issues that people use when choosing a place to live, which have the

potential to alter population projections in any direction.


 

Housing Profile

 

The Housing Profile in this Plan identifies existing housing characteristics and projected housing needs for residents of

Washington County.  The primary goal of the housing profile is to allow the County to determine what needs to be done in

order to provide safe, decent, sanitary and affordable housing for every family and individual residing within Washington

County.  The housing profile is an analysis that aids in determining the composition of owner-occupied and renter-occupied