Comprehensive
Development Plan Update
2005 to 2025
Prepared For
Washington County
Nebraska
Prepared By
Comprehensive
Development Plan Update
2005 to 2025
Washington County
Nebraska
Prepared By
Charlotte Petersen: Clerk
Steve Mencke: Assessor
Ed Talbot: Attorney
Alan Doll: Highway and Weed Supt.
Kay Erwin: Treasurer
Richard Hansen Surveyor
Mike Robinson: Sheriff
Laura Linhart: Chair Dave o’Hanlon, Chair
Dave O’Hanlon: Vice Chairman Gene Ohrt Vice Chair
Richard Schlenker Irwin Nelson
Doug Dierks Dan Kozol
Dave O’Hanlon Shauna Gerke
Matt Mathiesen Alternate Open
Kay Voss
Marvin Rowher
Doug Cook: County Planner
Planning Consultant
Table of Contents
Introduction
Introduction
Location
Topography and Climate
History of Washington County
The Purpose of Comprehensive Planning
The Comprehensive Planning Process
Comprehensive Plan Components
Governmental and Jurisdictional Organization
County Assessment
Conditions and Trend Analysis
Demographic Profile
Population Trends and Analysis
Migration Analysis
Age Structure Analysis
Population Projections
Housing Profile
Age of Existing Housing Stock
Economic and Employment Profile
Income Statistics
Income Source and Public Assistance
Industry Employment
Commuter Trends
Regional Basic/Non-Basic Analysis
Agricultural Profile
County Facilities
Facilities Plan
Recreational Facilities
Federal Recreational Facilities
State Recreational Facilities
Local Recreational Facilities
Other Recreational Activities
Educational Facilities
Public Schools
Other Public School Entities in Washington County
Post-Secondary Education
Other Educational Opportunities within Washington County
Fire and Police Protection
Fire and Rescue
Law Enforcement
County Buildings
County Historical Sites and Buildings
Transportation Facilities
Railroad Service
Bus Service
Airports
Communication Facilities
Telephone Services
Radio and Television Stations
Internet/World Wide Web Service Providers (ISP)
Newspapers
Public Utilities
Electricity
Natural Gas
Water Supply
Sanitary Sewerage Systems
Solid Waste Disposal Facilities
Health Facilities
Hospitals
Medical Clinics
Nursing Home Facilities
Home Health Care Services
Goals & Policies
Goals and Policies
Introduction
Washington County Town Hall Meetings
Town Hall Meetings
Overall Town Hall Meetings, Washington County
Goals and Policies for Washington County
Education
Environment
Water Resources
Economic Development
Public Facilities and Taxes
Public Works
Transportation
Health and Safety
Parks and Recreation
Implementation, Evaluation, and Review
Environment, Natural And Man-made Resources
Introduction
Natural Environmental Conditions
Natural Conditions
Climate
Topography
Relief
Slope
Wildlife and Recreation
Plant and animal life
Wetlands
Soil Formation and Classification
Soil Parent Material
Native Vegetation
Soil Association
Capability Groups of Soils
Soil Capability System, Washington County, Nebraska
Factors of Soil Formation
Prime Farmland
Flooding Frequency
Soil Limitations
Development Chapter
Introduction
Land Use Elements
Principles and Concepts of the Washington Development Chapter
Existing Land Use
Introduction
Land Use Categories
Existing Land Use Analysis
Existing Residential Density
Existing Land Use Summary
Existing Transportation System
Street and Road Classification System
Composition of Existing Transportation System
Future Land Use
Agricultural Uses
Non-Farm Residential Development
Commercial and Industrial Uses
Recreational Development
The Future Land Use Plan
Agricultural Use Areas
Residential Use Areas
Other Land Use Districts
Land Use Summary
Land Use Summary
Transportation System Plan
Introduction
Transportation Planning and Land Use
Transportation Financing Issues
Washington County’s One and Six Year Plan (Some Information Add later)
Nebraska Department of Roads’ Improvements
Washington County’s Proposed Improvements
Plan Implementation
Achieving Washington County’s Future
Action agenda
Plan Financing
Comprehensive Plan Maintenance
Annual Review of the Plan
Plan Amendment Procedures
Unanticipated Opportunities
Methods for Evaluating Development Proposals
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Population Trends and Projections, Washington County, 1900 to 2020
Figure 2: Age of Existing Housing Stock, Washington County, 1990
Table of Tables
Table 1: Population Trends, Washington County & Communities, 1980 to 2003
Table 2: Population Trends, Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area, 1980 -2003
Table 4: Age-Sex Characteristics, Washington County, 1990 to 2000
Table 5: Population Projection Series, Washington County and Communities, 2000 to 2030
Table 32: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun
Table 33: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun
Table 34: Issues of Washington County, Fort Calhoun
Table 35: Future Projects of Washington County, Fort Calhoun
Table 36: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Blair
Table 37: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Blair
Table 38: Issues of Washington County, Blair
Table 39: Future Projects of Washington County, Blair
Table 40: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School
Table 41: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School
Table 42: Issues of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School
Table 43: Future Projects of Washington County, Immanuel Lutheran School
Table 44: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Herman
Table 45: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Herman
Table 46: Issues of Washington County, Herman
Table 47: Future Projects of Washington County, Herman
Table 48: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Arlington
Table 49: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Arlington
Table 50: Issues of Washington County, Arlington
Table 51: Future Projects of Washington County, Arlington
Table 52: Negative Aspects of Washington County, Overall
Table 53: Positive Aspects of Washington County, Overall
Table 54: Issues of Washington County, Overall
Table 55: Future Projects of Washington County, Overall
Washington County is located along the Missouri River on the Nebraska/Nebraska border. Washington County is bounded
on the south by Douglas County, on the west by Dodge County, on the north by Burt County and on the east by the Missouri
River. Across the Missouri River in Nebraska, both Harrison County and Pottawattamie County bound Washington County.
Several highways traverse Washington County. U.S. Highway 30 enters Washington County from the west and east and State
Highway 91 enters from the west. State Highways 31 and 133 enter Washington County from the south and U.S Highway 75
enters from the North and South. All U.S. and state highways converge on Blair, in the east central part of the county with
U.S. Highway 30 continuing into Nebraska.
Washington County contains approximately 400 square miles, or 256,000 acres. The surface of the County is quite
diversified. Approximately sixty percent of the County is upland, or rolling prairie. Creek and river bottoms, and valleys
comprise about thirty percent of the landscape; while ten-percent of the County is broken and bluffy. The bottoms of the
Missouri River, along the eastern edge of the County, are from three to seven miles wide, and those of the Elkhorn, on the
southwestern border, are from three to six. Many smaller streams cover the County. The Papillion River and its tributaries
drain a large portion of the County.
Washington County is located approximately 1,100 feet above sea level. The annual average temperature is 50.8L F. During
the winter months, the average temperature is 28.0L F, but can dip below zero. During the summer months, the average
temperature is 72.8L F; however, there will likely be a few days when the temperature surpasses 100L F. Not only is the
temperature capable of very large annual changes, it can also change very quickly if conditions are right. Average annual
moisture is 56.0 inches. Average rainfall is 3.4 inches in spring and summer and 1.2 inches in fall and winter. Average
snowfall is 2.7 inches in early winter, and 6.6 inches in late winter. The annual growing season is 170 days.
Washington County has a rich and important history. Its history began in 1804, when Meriwether Lewis and William Clark
held a council with six Indian chiefs from the Missouri and Otoe tribes. This council, held at present day Fort Calhoun,
established friendly relations between the expedition of Lewis and Clark and the Indian tribes represented there.
In 1819, the Federal Government established Fort Atkinson, afterward called Fort Calhoun, on the same ground where the
Lewis and Clark council had taken place. Fort Atkinson was the first American fort west of the Missouri River, and
eventually included Nebraska’s first school, farm, sawmill, hospital, and library. At its peak, Fort Atkinson was the largest
military installation in America. However, by 1827, the frontier had moved further west, and Fort Atkinson was closed.
In 1846, Brigham Young and the Mormons established a winter camp in Florence, just south of Washington County, and
several of the party continued north, to an area just south of present day Blair, to set up a farm for food supplies. After
conflicts with Indian tribes in the area, Brigham Young and the Mormons closed their encampment.
In 1854, Thomas B. Cuming, acting Governor of the Nebraska Territory, issued a proclamation that set the original
boundaries of Washington County. The first Legislature of Nebraska convened in January of 1856, and in February,
reorganized the boundaries of Washington County. The same act that reorganized the boundaries set Fort Calhoun as the
county seat. Where it remained until 1858 when it was moved to Desoto; in 1866 it was again located at Fort Calhoun by a
popular vote and in 1869, by a public vote moved to Blair.
The Carter brothers were the original settlers of present-day Blair in May 1855. In 1864 the Northern Nebraska Air-Line
Railroad Company was organized and in 1867 received a grant of seventy-five section of land, which was transferred to the
Sioux City & Pacific Railroad Company composed of five gentlemen. In 1868 John I. Blair and associates became owners of
the franchises of the road. In June the people of Washington County, at a special election, voted to the S.C. & P Company
$75,000 in county bonds and the company which had been awaiting the result of the election, immediately under the
management of John I. Blair, pushed the road across the Missouri and built it centrally throughout the County from east to
west to Fremont, to the exact location of the prospective railroad company from the Carter brothers and three other men and
the offering to this land for sate in lots at public auction. The sale was conducted ostensibly by the Railroad Company, but
really, John I. Blair purchased the whole tract from the original settlers’ it was he who sold the lots and it was he in whose
hone the town was named.
Washington County was named in honor of President George Washington, United States President from 1789 to 1797.
According to Perkey’s Nebraska Place Names, (Perkey, Elton A., Nebraska State Historical Society, 1995), there were as
many as 50 different settlements in Washington County at various times. Many were merely railroad stations, and several
were destroyed by floods. Washington County is now home to six communities; Arlington, Blair, Fort Calhoun, Herman,
Kennard, and Washington.
The Washington County Comprehensive Development Plan is designed to promote orderly growth and development for the
County and its communities. The Comprehensive Development Plan will provide policy guidelines to enable citizens and
elected officials to make informed decisions about the future of the County.
The Plan acts as a tool to “Develop
a road map that guides the community
through change”
The Comprehensive Development Plan will provide a guideline for the location of future developments within the planning
jurisdiction of Washington County. The Comprehensive Development Plan is intended to encourage a strong economic base
for the County so the goals of the County are achieved.
The Plan will assist Washington County in evaluating the impacts of development (i.e. economic, social, fiscal, service and
amenity provision, health, safety and general welfare) and encourage appropriate land uses throughout the jurisdictional area
of the County. The objective of planning is to provide a framework for guiding the community—whether a village, city,
county, toward orderly growth and development. The Plan assists the County in balancing the physical, social, economic,
and aesthetic features as it responds to private sector interests.
Planned growth will make Washington County more effective in serving residents, more efficient in using resources, and able
to meet the standard of living and quality of life every individual desires.
Comprehensive planning begins with the data collection phase. Data are collected that provide a snapshot of the past and
present County conditions. Analysis of data provides the basis for developing forecasts for future land-use demands in the
County.
The second phase of the planning process is the development of general goals and policies, based upon the issues facing the
County. These are practical guidelines for improving existing conditions and guiding future growth. The Comprehensive
Development Plan is a vision presented in text, graphics and tables that represent the desires of the County for the future.
The Comprehensive Development Plan represents a blueprint designed to identify, assess, and develop actions and policies in
the areas of population, land use, transportation, housing, economic development, community facilities, and utilities. The Comprehensive Development Plan contains recommendations that when implemented will be of value to the County and its
residents.
Implementation is the final phase of the process. A broad range of development policies and programs are required to
implement the Comprehensive Development Plan. The Comprehensive Development Plan identifies the tools, programs, and
methods necessary to carry out the recommendations. Nevertheless, the implementation of the development policies
contained within the Comprehensive Development Plan is dependent upon the adoption of the Plan by the governing body,
and the leadership exercised by the present and future elected and appointed officials of the County.
The Plan was prepared under the direction of the Washington County Planning Commission with the assistance and
participation of the Washington County Board of Supervisors, the Plan Review Committee and citizens of Washington
County. The planning time period for achieving goals, programs, and developments identified in the Washington County Comprehensive Development Plan is 20 years. However, the County should review the Plan annually and update the
document every ten to fifteen years, or when a pressing need is identified. Updating the Comprehensive Development Plan
will allow the County to incorporate ideas and developments that were not known at the time of the present comprehensive
planning process.
Nebraska State Statutes require the inclusion of certain elements in a Comprehensive Plan. A “Comprehensive Development
Plan,” as defined in Neb. Rev. Stat. § 23-114.02 (Reissue 1997), “shall consist of both graphic and textual material and shall
be designed to accommodate anticipated long-range future growth.” The Comprehensive Plan is comprised of the following
components:
§ Community Characteristics Profile,
§ Community Facilities Profile,
§ Community Goals and Policies,
§ Land Use Analysis,
§ Transportation Analysis, and
§ Plan Implementation.
Analyzing past and existing demographic, housing, economic and social trends permit the projection of likely conditions in
the future. Projections and forecasts are useful tools in planning for the future; however, these tools are not always accurate
and may change due to unforeseen factors. Also, past trends may be skewed or the data may be inaccurate, creating a
distorted picture of past conditions. Therefore, it is important for Washington County to closely monitor population, housing
and economic conditions that may impact the County. Through periodic monitoring, the County can adapt and adjust to
changes at the local level. Having the ability to adapt to socio-economic change allows the County to maintain an effective Comprehensive Development Plan for the future, to enhance the quality of life, and to raise the standard of living for all
residents.
The Comprehensive Development Plan records where Washington County has been, where it is now, and where it likely will
be in the future. Having this record in the Comprehensive Development Plan will serve to inform County officials as much
as possible. The Comprehensive Development Plan is an information and management tool for County leaders to use in their
decision-making process when considering future developments. The Comprehensive Development Plan is not a static
document; it should evolve as changes in the land-use, population or local economy occur during the planning period. This
information is the basis for Washington County’s evolution as it achieves its physical, social, and economic goals.
The Washington County Board of Supervisors, which is a board of elected officials, performs the governmental functions for
the County. Each incorporated community in Washington County also has elected officials and officers that oversee how
their community is governed.
The planning and zoning jurisdiction of Washington County, pursuant to Neb. Rev. Stat. § 23-114 (Reissue 1997), includes
all of the unincorporated portions of the County, excluding the established extraterritorial jurisdiction of each incorporated
city or village.
Pursuant to Neb. Rev. Stat. § 17-1002 (Reissue 1997), the planning and zoning jurisdiction for the incorporated communities
in Washington County that have adopted Comprehensive Planning and Zoning Ordinances, except for Blair, includes the area
within one mile of their corporate limits. The City of Blair has the authority to exercise planning and zoning jurisdiction
throughout a two-mile extraterritorial jurisdiction. As these communities grow and annex land into their corporate limits,
their extraterritorial jurisdictions will extend further into the County. There are five (5) communities in Washington County,
besides Blair, that are incorporated, including Arlington, Fort Calhoun, Herman, Kennard, and Washington.
Population statistics aid decision-makers by developing a broad picture of Washington County. It is important for
Washington County to understand where it has been and where it appears to be going. Population is the driving force behind
housing, local employment, economic, and fiscal stability of the County. Historic population conditions assist in developing demographic projections, which in turn assist in determining future housing, retail, medical, employment and educational
needs within the County. Projections provide an estimate for the County a basis from which to base future land-use and
development decisions. However, population projections are only estimates and unforeseen factors may effect projections
significantly.
Table 1 indicates the population for the incorporated communities in Washington County, the unincorporated areas, and
Washington County as a whole, between 1980 and 2003. This information provides the residents of Washington County with
a better understanding of their past and present population trends and changes. Washington County’s population in 2000 was
18,780 persons, which was an increase of 3,272 persons, or 21.1%, from 1990. The County’s population in 2003 was
estimated to be 19,690, an increase of 910 persons, 4.8%, over 2000.
The table indicates that Washington County had a net increase of 6,380 persons or 47.9% between 1980 and 2003. This was
driven primarily by an increase in the populations of Washington County’s unincorporated areas. The greatest population
increases, with regard to percentages, for the incorporated areas, occurred in Fort Calhoun and Blair. Herman is the only
community to have suffered an overall loss between 1980 and 2003, which happened in large part between 1980 and 1990.
Washington County exhibited its greatest population gain, both in terms of total number of persons and in percentage, within
Table 1, between 1990 and 2000, when it recorded an increase of 3,272 persons, or 21.1%. During this period, the
unincorporated areas of Washington County experienced a population gain of 2,338 persons, or 38.5%, and the incorporated
areas increased by 934 persons, or 9.9%.
Since 2000, estimates for Washington County show the population has continued to increase in all areas of the county. The
communities of Fort Calhoun and Washington exhibited the largest percentage increases, growing by 5.8% and 7.1%
respectively. The largest increase in total numbers occurred in the City of Blair, which has grown by 266 persons, or 3.8%.
Table 2 indicates the population for the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), of which Washington
County is a part. This MSA includes the Nebraska Counties of Douglas, Sarpy, Washington, Saunders (added in 2000) and
Cass County (added in 1998). The MSA also includes Pottawattamie County, Iowa. Since Washington County is part of a
larger economic region, it is important for the County to have an understanding of the role they play within that area. The
information shown in Table 2 allows Washington County to compare its growth to the growth of the surrounding area
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1980 - 1990, 2000, 2003
Washington County is the least populated county within the MSA. Washington County’s growth rate between 1980 and
2003 was 27.0%, compared to the MSA’s growth rate of 30.3%. In 1980, Washington County accounted for 2.65% of the
population of the MSA. By 2000, Washington County had decreased its percentage to 2.55%. The population growth rate in
Washington County has been much greater than any other county in the MSA except for Sarpy County.
*Cass County, Nebraska, was added to the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area in 1998
** Saunders County was added to the Omaha-Council Bluffs Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1980 - 1990, 2000, 2003
Migration Analysis allows a county to understand how specific dynamics are in influencing population change. Migration
indicates the population size that has migrated in or out of the County. The migration number is determined by subtracting
the natural change in population (i.e. births minus deaths) from the total change in population. Table 3 shows the total
change in population for Washington County from 1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980‑1990, and 1990-1998. A negative number
in the “Total Migration” column indicates the number of persons that have migrated out of the County, while a positive
number indicates the number of persons that have migrated into the County. Unfortunately, this analysis is primarily
available for the County as a whole. These data have limited availability for communities.
Migration Analysis is important for a County to understand since it offers an explanation of what affected the population
changes. Through migration analysis, it can be determined how much of a population change was due to persons migrating
in or out of an area, and how much was due to births or deaths in the area. For example, assume an area had a total change of
100 persons during any given time period, but there were 15 more births than deaths during that same time period. Looking
at the natural change only, the area should have grown by 15 persons. However, when the total change of 100 is taken into
account, we need to subtract out those births in order to determine what caused the remaining change. If the total change of
100 was an increase, then 85 people moved into the area (100 increase – 15 births that occurred in area = 85 additional people
in area). If, however, the total change of 100 represented a loss, then 115 people moved out of the area (100 decrease + 15
births in the area that did not increase the population = 115 people moved out of the area).
Source(s): U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1960 - 1990, 1998
Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics Report(s), 1960 –1998
Table 3 indicates births exceeded deaths in Washington County for each reporting period. Based upon this information and
the migration analysis formula, the primary factor of Washington County’s increasing population can be determined for any
given period. During the reporting periods of 1960 to 1970, and 1980 to 1990, the largest contributor to Washington
County’s population change was the number of births in the County. There was an addition of 724 and 725 persons, due to
births, in these reporting periods, respectively. Also, there was a total in-migration of 483 and 374 persons, respectively.
During the 1970 to 1980 reporting period, total in-migration added 1,462 persons, while births exceeded deaths by 736,
therefore, in-migration accounted for twice as many additions to the County’s population as births. During the final reporting
period, 1990 to 2000, in-migration added 1,664 persons, while the natural change accounted for the addition of 509 persons,
which shows that in-migration accounted for nearly three times more of the increase than births.
Age structure is an important component of population analysis. By analyzing age structure, one can determine which age
groups (cohorts) within Washington County are being affected by population shifts and changes. Each age cohort affects the
population in a number of different ways. For example, the existence of larger young cohorts (20-44 years) means that there
is a greater ability to sustain future population growth than does larger older cohorts. On the other hand, if the large, young
cohorts maintain their relative size, but do not increase the population as expected, they will, as a group, tend to strain the
resources of an area as they age. Understanding what is happening within the age groups of the County’s population is
necessary to effectively plan for the future.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, STF-1A, 1980, 1990
Table 4 exhibits the age cohort structure for Washington County in 1990 and 2000. Examining population age structure may
indicate significant changes affecting the different population segments within the County. Realizing how many persons are
in each age cohort, and at what rate the age cohorts are changing in size, will allow for informed decision-making in order to
maximize the future use of resources. As shown in Table 4, changes between 1990 and 2000 occurred within a number of
different age group cohorts.
One method of analyzing cohort movement in a population involves comparing the number of persons aged between 0 and 4
years in 1990 with the number of persons in the same age cohort 10 years later, or aged between 10 and 14 years in 2000.
For example, in Washington County, there were 1,063 children between the ages of 0 and 4 in 1990, and in 2000 there were
1,479 children between the ages of 10 and 14, an increase of 416 children. A review of population by this method permits
one to undertake a detailed analysis of which cohorts are moving in and out of the County. The positive change in this cohort
indicates in-migration.
Washington County experienced growth in many of its age cohorts. The 0 to 4 and 5 to 9 cohorts always indicate an
increase, since the persons, in that group, were not born when the previous census was completed. Increases in the cohorts
occurred in five age groups between 1990 and 2000, these cohort shifts were:
1990 Age Cohort Number 2000 Age Cohort Number Change
NA NA 0-4 years 1,207 persons + 1,207 persons
NA NA 5-9 years 1,423 persons + 1,423 persons
0-4 years 1,063 persons 10-14 years 1,479 persons + 416 persons
5-9 years 1,329 persons 15-19 years 1,581 persons + 252 persons
20-24 years 932 persons 30-34 years 1,024 persons + 92 persons
25-34 years 2,338 persons 35-44 years 3,057 persons + 719 persons
35-44 years 2,659 persons 45-54 years 2,849 persons + 190 persons
Total Change + 4,299 persons
Five of the age-cohorts that existed in 1990 and 2000 declined in number. Note that the cohorts represented in Table 4 differ
from those listed below due to the consolidation of the 25-29 and 30-34 cohorts from 1990 into a 35-44 cohort in 2000.
While the County population increased during this ten year span, an analysis of where the changes took place will lead to an understanding of what services will be needed in the future. Outside of the 2000age groups of 0-4 and 5-9 years, the greatest
increases included the 35-44 and 10-14 year age groups. These specific age groups represent a solid in-migration of family
populations between 1990 and 2000.
Decreases in the cohorts occurred in a number of age groups between 1990 and 2000, these cohort shifts were:
1990 Age Cohort Number 2000 Age Cohort Number Change
10-14 years 1,400 persons 20-24 years 1,139 persons - 261 persons
15-19 years 1,295 persons 25-29 years 928 persons - 367 persons
45-54 years 1,818 persons 55-64 years 1,670 persons - 148 persons
55-64 years 1,521 persons 65-74 years 798 persons - 723 persons
65 years + 2,252 persons 75 years + 1,162 persons -1,090 persons
Total Change - 2,589 persons
The three age cohorts, from 2000, representing the most negative change, are the 75 years and older, 65-74, and 20-24 age
cohorts. The changes in the 75 years and older age cohort were most likely due to either deaths or people moving into elderly
care facilities located in other counties. The changes in the 20-24 and 25-29 age cohorts in 2000 are most likely related to
persons completing high school or vocation training and moving onto either higher education opportunities or new careers
outside of the County. The changes in the latter two are critical since they indicate that young people are moving away to
pursue higher education opportunities. However, fewer of them are returning to Washington County when starting their
career and family. However, the 2000 U. S. Census is indicating that a large number of families are moving to Washington
County once they pass the higher age group. Some of this may be due to increased employment opportunities in the County,
which can be attributed by the establishment of Cargill and Huntel.
The median age in Washington County increased from 34.8 years in 1990 to 37.1 years in 2000. The proportion of persons
less than 18 years of age decreased slightly in total population between 1990 and 2000, while those aged 65 years and older
increased by 7.7% overall. There is a segment of the population that works in Omaha and has chosen to live in Washington
County and commute to Omaha. The 10-14 year old age group of 2000 showed an increase of 144 persons, which leads to
the assumption that people with young families may be drawn to Washington County because of its quality of life and close
proximity to Omaha. The change in people ages 55-74 has increased by 255 persons.
In order to accommodate a growing number of elderly, whom tend to remain in place as they age, Washington County, in
cooperation with the communities, should be involved in developing facilities that can house those that need assistance and
allow them to feel safe and comfortable. To encourage the return of the younger and middle age groups, the County should
be involved in economic development activities, including housing options and the continued maintenance and improvement
of infrastructure to accommodate new growth, making Washington County an attractive place to live and work. Having
Omaha commuters live in Washington County is fine for increasing the population base, but Washington County needs a
plan to also develop its economic base. With a larger, secure economic base, Washington County would be better positioned
to plan for and meet its future service needs.
Population Projections are estimates based upon past and present circumstances. Population projections allow Washington
County to estimate what the population will be in future years by looking at past trends. By scrutinizing population changes
in this manner, the County will be able to develop a baseline of change from which they can create different future scenarios.
A number of factors (demographics, economics, social, etc.) may affect projections positively or negatively. At the present
time, these projections are the best crystal ball Washington County has for predicting future population changes. There are
many methods to project the future population trends; the six methods used below are intended to give Washington County a
broad overview of the possible population changes that could occur in the future.
Trend Line Analysis is a process of projecting future populations based upon changes during a specified period of time. In the analysis of Washington County, three different trend lines were reviewed: 1960 to 2000, 1980 to 2000, and 1990 to 2000. A review of these trend lines indicates Washington County will continue to increase in population through 2030. The following projections summarize the decennial population for Washington County through 2030.
Washington County Trend Analysis
Year Trend: 1960 to 2000 Trend: 1980 to 2000 Trend: 1990 to 2000
2010 21,370 persons 20,761 persons 21,237 persons
2020 24,318 persons 22,951 persons 24,016 persons
2030 27,671 persons 25,373 persons 27,159 persons
Cohort Survival Analysis reviews the population by different age groups and sex. The population age groups are then
projected forward by decade using survival rates for the different age cohorts. This projection model accounts for average
birth rates by sex and adds the new births into the future population.
The Cohort Survival Model projection indicates Washington County’s population will increase each decade through 2030.
The following projection for Washington County is based on applying survival rates to age cohorts, but does not consider the
effects of either in-migration or out-migration.
Washington County Cohort Survival Analysis
Year Cohort Survival Model
2010 18,939 persons
2020 20,162 persons
2030 21,359 persons
Using the modeling techniques discussed in the previous paragraphs, a summary of the six population projections for
Washington County through the year 2030 is shown in Figure 1. Three population projection scenarios were selected and
include (1) a Low Series; (2) a Medium Series; and, (3) a High Series. All of the projections forecast an increase in County
population through the year 2030. The following population projections indicate the different scenarios that may be
encountered by Washington County through the year 2030.
Year Low Series = Cohort Medium Series = 1980-2000 High Series = 1960-2000
2010 18,939 persons 20,761 persons 21,370 persons
2020 20,162 persons 22,951 persons 24,318 persons
2030 21,359 persons 25,373 persons 27,671 persons
Figure 1 reviews the population history of Washington County between 1900 and 2000, and identifies three population
projection scenarios into the years 2010, 2020, and 2030. Figure 1 indicates the peak population for Washington County
occurred in 2000 with 18,780 people. Beginning in 1900, Washington County began to experience a gradual decline in its
population. However, starting in 1950, Washington County began to increase in population much more rapidly than it had
decreased over the previous fifty years. From 1900 through 1950, Washington County lost a total of 1,575 people. However,
between 1950 and 2000, Washington County gained 7,269 people, an average increase of 12.12 people every month over the
50 year period. Between 1950 and 2000, Washington County's population increased by 63.0%, or 1.26% per year.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 1900-2000, 2003
As stated previously, these projections are based upon data from past trends and present conditions. A number of external and
internal demographic, economic and social factors may affect these population forecasts. Washington County should monitor
population trends, size and composition periodically in order to understand in what direction their community is heading.
Washington County’s greatest population threat continues to be out-migration, and strategies should be developed to further
examine and prevent this phenomenon.
Source: Population projections, JEO Consulting Group, 2000
Table 5 shows the population projection by series for each of the areas within Washington County. The population
projections for the communities were found by determining the proportion of the total population that each community had
and calculating that percentage for each series. This method of projection is helpful and gives an idea of where people are
likely to live. This method does not consider the social issues that people use when choosing a place to live, which have the
potential to alter population projections in any direction.
The Housing Profile in this Plan identifies existing housing characteristics and projected housing needs for residents of
Washington County. The primary goal of the housing profile is to allow the County to determine what needs to be done in
order to provide safe, decent, sanitary and affordable housing for every family and individual residing within Washington
County. The housing profile is an analysis that aids in determining the composition of owner-occupied and renter-occupied